STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE UNIT
Intelligence for the drone economy.
Source-traced intelligence for investors and strategy teams evaluating drone, counter-UAS, and defence-autonomy companies. Know what is real, what is claimed, and what to investigate next.
SERVICE 01
Monitor the market
The weekly Signal Dossier and sector reference pages: regulatory shifts, platform developments, contract awards, and capital flows, with every material claim sourced.
SERVICE 02
Interrogate the market
Company records, market maps, and procurement trackers across counter-UAS, defence autonomy, and the wider drone economy. Compare vendors on evidence, not marketing.
SERVICE 03
Make a decision
The five-day Deal Screen: one company, one decision question, a source-traced written assessment of what is verified, what is claimed, and what to investigate next. £999.
INSIGHTS
The Signal Dossier
The Malaysia Detour: China’s Drone Industry Rerouted Around the Tariff Wall
On 3 August 2026 the FCC proposed something it had never done before: retroactively revoking clearance from drones it already approved, reclassifying the LiDAR on the DJI Air 3S, Mini 5 Pro, and Avata 360 as military-grade, with comments due 2 September. It is the latest course of a wall that began with the December Covered List, and the reason the wall keeps rising is a detour: after tariffs hit in 2018, DJI moved assembly to Malaysia, and by 2024 Malaysia exported three times as many drones by value to the US as China did, per 'Chip War' author Chris Miller in the Financial Times. Assembly moved; the component layer never did. With DJI still roughly 96 per cent of detected US drone activity, this dossier maps the detour in the trade data, the component chokepoints both governments now regulate, and the screening rule the realignment hands to investors and corporate development teams.
The Five-Day Divergence: Joby Doubles Down on Certification While Archer Buys Boeing's Autonomy Stack
Five days in August 2026 split the US eVTOL race into two different investment theses. On 5 August, Joby Aviation reported its strongest quarterly progress yet in the fifth and final stage of FAA Type Certification, $2.3 billion in cash, five aircraft flying with 12 more in production, and a raised full-year revenue outlook of $115 million to $125 million carried by its Blade passenger business. On 10 August, Archer Aviation answered with a different strategy entirely: a deal to acquire Boeing's Wisk Aero, Insitu and SkyGrid, with Boeing set to take a strategic stake in Archer, adding what the company says is over $200 million in annual revenue from Insitu alone. One company is concentrating on the civilian certification grind; the other is assembling a diversified aerospace and defence platform around it. Investors pricing both against the same certification milestone chart are now pricing the wrong thing for one of them.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Sector Reference Pages
Aerial Smart Weapons Market 2026 Forecast
The aerial smart weapons market, encompassing laser-guided bombs, GPS-guided munitions, standoff air-to-surface cruise missiles, and precision air-to-surface missiles, sits within a broader smart weapons market Mordor Intelligence is reported to size at approximately USD 22.26 billion in 2026, growing to USD 31.89 billion by 2031 at a 7.45 per cent CAGR overall with the airborne segment at approximately 9.86 per cent; dominant contractors include Lockheed Martin, Raytheon Technologies, Boeing, MBDA, Elbit Systems, IAI, Rafael, and Northrop Grumman.
MARKET INTELLIGENCEDrone Cybersecurity Market 2026 Forecast
Drone cybersecurity, spanning airspace detection, radio-frequency cyber-takeover of hostile UAS, and protective platform security, is estimated at approximately USD 2 billion to USD 3 billion in 2025 by multiple analysts, with compound annual growth rates between 14 and 19 per cent forecast through the early 2030s; key vendors include Dedrone (Axon), D-Fend Solutions (subject to a USD 1.5 billion Motorola Solutions acquisition announced June 2026), Fortem Technologies, Leidos, Mobilicom, and DroneSec.
MARKET INTELLIGENCEUS Military Navigation Market 2026 Forecast
The US military navigation market, spanning inertial navigation systems, embedded GPS/INS units, and GPS-denied alternatives, sits within a global military navigation systems market Mordor Intelligence sizes at USD 12.15 billion in 2025, with North America the largest region at 38.25 per cent of revenue (approximately USD 4.6 billion) and global growth of 6.79 per cent CAGR to 2031; dominant contracted vendors include Honeywell, Northrop Grumman, Collins Aerospace, and L3Harris, with Honeywell committing USD 500 million to expand defence technology production capacity under a March 2026 Department of War framework agreement.
Evidence position
SAMPLE, ONE COMPANY, 16 MATERIAL CLAIMS REVIEWED
Supported by official records
9 claims
Company-stated only
5 claims
Contradicted or unresolved
2 claims
Every conclusion traces to a classified source: official record, company statement, independent reporting, or our own assessment, each labelled. Where the evidence is contradicted or missing, the screen says so and lists the questions to put to management.
Commission a Deal Screen →THE DEAL SCREEN
Know what is real before the deal moves.
One company, one decision question, five working days.
A written screen with a source ledger: what is verified, what is only claimed, what is contradicted.
A 30-minute walkthrough, and the questions your next management meeting should ask.
OUR METHODOLOGY
How we synthesize data.
SIGNAL CAPTURE
Global monitoring of regulatory filings, patents, and procurement tenders.
CLAIM VERIFICATION
Every material claim traced to a classified source and checked against the record. Specialist technical review is commissioned where an engagement requires it.
STRATEGIC SYNTHESIS
Connecting technical shifts to macroeconomic consequences and competitive risk.
ACTIONABLE OUTPUT
Findings distilled into written assessments designed for board and investment-committee use, with uncertainty stated rather than smoothed over.